Steam's Most-Wanted Indies: The Small Games Outrunning the Blockbusters

Ask a small studio what number keeps them up at night and most will say the same thing: wishlists. Every time a player clicks the button on a Steam page, Steam promises to tell them when the game launches or goes on sale. For an indie team without a marketing budget, that list is the closest thing to a guaranteed audience.

So it is worth looking closely at who is winning. In one tracking site's estimates of Steam's most-wishlisted upcoming games, taken on November 11, 2026, independent games hold a remarkable share of the top places, sitting comfortably alongside the biggest names from Xbox, Capcom and Games Workshop's licensees. Here is who is there, what they are, and how much you should trust the numbers.

The big three: Light No Fire, Blight: Survival and Kingmakers

Light No Fire (Hello Games) is third overall, with an estimated 2.44 million wishlists, behind only Valve's Deadlock and one other title. It is a survival sandbox set on a fantasy planet about the size of Earth, and it has no release date, no window and almost no footage beyond its December 2023 reveal. Our deep dive explains why the studio is staying quiet.

Blight: Survival (Haenir Studio, published by Behaviour Interactive) is fifth, at roughly 2.0 million. It is a medieval action-horror game for up to four players with extraction and roguelite elements, and it is still "to be announced". Read more.

Kingmakers (Redemption Road, published by tinyBuild) is eighth, at about 1.41 million. It sends players 500 years back to medieval England with assault rifles and attack helicopters, into real-time battles of thousands of AI soldiers. It is "coming soon", with a playtest sign-up open. Read more.

The cozy contingent

The other big story of the list is how many cozy and cozy-adjacent games are near the top.

• Witchbrook (Chucklefish) is ninth, with about 1.34 million. Unlike the three above, it finally has a date: January 28, 2027. Full guide.
• Emberville (Cygnus Cross), a pixel-art action RPG and farming sim, is around 32nd, with about 801,000. Early Access starts January 7, 2027. Read more.
• Haunted Paws (LazyFlock), the two-player puppy horror adventure, is around 38th at an estimated 720,000, and it is set for May 2027. Read more.
• Hela: of Mice & Magic (Windup Games) is around 44th at about 658,000, and it is the closest to launch: December 1, 2026. Read more.
• Grave Seasons (Perfect Garbage), the farming sim with a serial killer, is right behind at about 649,000, ahead of a March 9, 2027 release. Read more.
• Neverway (Coldblood Inc.), the horror life sim from Celeste's pixel artist, is around 55th at about 575,000, due in 2027. Read more.

The wild cards

Some of the most interesting names on the list fit no trend at all.

• Showa American Story (NEKCOM Entertainment) sits around 34th with about 771,000. It is set in an alternate 2026 in which Japan has economically taken over much of the United States, before a catastrophe collapses society. A revived teenage girl, Chigusa Choko, road-trips across a zombie-filled America in a big RV, with 1980s and 1990s nostalgia everywhere. Its Steam page still lists a 2026 release, with only weeks of the year left.
• Frostrail (FakeFish), the frozen-train survival shooter, is around 56th with about 570,000, after a top-ten demo at October's Next Fest. Read more.
• Unrecord (DRAMA), the bodycam-style single-player shooter, is 14th with about 1.09 million. Its 2023 reveal trailer looked so realistic that many viewers at first believed it was real footage.
• KARLSON, the long-awaited game from YouTuber developer Dani, sits around 57th in estimated wishlists, but with 201,877 followers it has more Steam followers than all but three of the top 60.

Why the numbers disagree

Here is the catch: Steam does not publish wishlist counts. Tracking sites estimate them, usually from the number of people who follow a game, which Steam does show. Developers, meanwhile, can see their own real numbers and sometimes announce them. The two do not always match.

Look at three games in this article:

• Haunted Paws: LazyFlock reported more than 900,000 wishlists in late August 2026. The tracker's November estimate is about 720,000.
• Hela: its publisher announced more than one million wishlists before launch. The tracker estimates about 658,000.
• Grave Seasons: the official figure at its date announcement was over 750,000. The tracker shows about 649,000.

In each case the developer's own number is higher. That does not mean anyone is lying. Estimates based on followers are rough, and some games attract many more wishlists per follower than others, especially cozy and family games, whose audiences are less likely to follow a page. The lesson is to treat any public wishlist ranking as a guide to buzz, not an exact count.

Why wishlists matter so much to indies

For a big publisher, wishlists are one signal among many. For a small team, they can be the whole plan. A wishlist is a direct line to a player: on launch day, Steam notifies everyone who added the game, and it does so again when the game goes on sale. A strong wishlist count also helps a game climb Steam's own "popular upcoming" lists, which brings in more wishlists in turn.

That is why so many of the games here built their numbers through Steam Next Fest demos and showcase appearances rather than paid advertising. Haunted Paws went from a two-person project to a near-million wishlist game largely through free demos, short clips and festival awards. Hela credits more than 140 million organic video views. Emberville's demo was among the most-played of October. The pattern is the same: let people play, or at least let them see something delightful in a few seconds, and the wishlists follow.

The flip side is pressure. A game that has sat near the top of the charts for years, like Light No Fire or Blight: Survival, has to live up to an expectation built partly in players' imaginations. That is not a reason to avoid wishlisting, but it is a reason to read early reviews before you buy.

By the numbers

• 2.44 million: Light No Fire's estimated wishlists, the highest of any independent game.
• 3 of the top 10: independent games with no release date (Light No Fire, Blight: Survival, Kingmakers).
• 6: cozy or cozy-adjacent games in the top 60.
• 1: game on this list launching in 2026, Hela on December 1.
• 201,877: KARLSON's Steam followers.

What to watch

The real test of a wishlist is how many of those players actually buy. Over the next six months, several of these games will find out: Hela on December 1, Emberville on January 7, Witchbrook on January 28, Grave Seasons on March 9 and Haunted Paws in May. For the big three without dates, the next sign of life is most likely at a winter showcase, starting with The Game Awards in December.

For every date in one place, see our winter 2026-27 indie release calendar.